Analysts record sharp increase in hostile messaging targeting Lithuania
Lithuania has documented a significant escalation in information attacks originating from Russia and Belarus, with army analysts identifying 325 hostile incidents in November 2025, according to Delfi’s reporting. Nearly half of the activity focused on military narratives, concentrating particularly on Kaliningrad transit and tensions along the Lithuanian-Belarusian border.
Analysts noted that Moscow amplified discussions around potential restrictions on Kaliningrad transit, portraying any Lithuanian action as a breach of bilateral agreements and EU-Russia arrangements—claims presented as justification for responses allegedly permitted under Russia’s military doctrine.
Belarusian propaganda, meanwhile, accused Lithuania of fabricating border tensions and engineering incidents. Officials in Minsk repeated messages suggesting that Lithuania was unjustifiably blaming Belarus for posing threats, while Belarus itself supposedly sought “dialogue” and “good-neighbourly” solutions. According to Lithuanian experts, Minsk attempted to present Lithuania as a hostile actor responsible for militarising the region and destabilising the border environment.
Hybrid pressure builds as Russia and Belarus escalate information operations
The surge in disinformation is part of a broader hybrid campaign aimed at undermining Lithuania’s credibility and eroding trust in its state institutions. By framing discussions of Kaliningrad transit as provocative, Moscow seeks to create an atmosphere of constant threat and position itself as reacting “lawfully” to Lithuanian decisions. This narrative carries risks of escalation, especially when information campaigns are used to legitimise potential coercive actions.
Belarus’s role in the hybrid pressure is reinforced by repeated launches of meteorological balloons that have violated Lithuanian airspace. Some balloons have interfered with civilian aviation and forced temporary airport closures, while others have been used by smugglers or equipped for information-gathering. The combination of information warfare and physical provocations demonstrates the multidimensional nature of the threat facing Lithuania.
Border tensions deepen as Minsk deflects responsibility
Lithuania and Belarus have experienced a rapid deterioration of relations, marked by sustained disinformation campaigns and real incidents on the border. Lithuanian authorities accuse Minsk of deliberately creating friction, staging hybrid attacks and contributing to the massive queues of more than a thousand Lithuanian trucks stranded at crossing points.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and his officials attempt to portray Minsk as a benign neighbour pushed into conflict by Lithuanian “hostility”. This contrast between rhetoric and action is viewed in Vilnius as an effort to obscure responsibility, shift blame and shape international perceptions. EU capitals, in turn, have prepared additional sanctions in response to Belarusian behaviour.
Russia targets Lithuania as part of wider confrontation with the West
The information attacks against Lithuania take place against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and its broader struggle to reshape Europe’s security order. Lithuania—one of Kyiv’s strongest supporters—has become a prominent target for intimidation, discreditation and attempts to fracture Western unity.
Moscow’s focus on the Suwałki corridor, the strategic land bridge between Poland and Lithuania that connects Kaliningrad to Belarus, underscores the geopolitical stakes. Control over this corridor would allow Russia to isolate the Baltic states from NATO allies, making it a recurring theme in Russian strategic messaging.
NATO allies reinforce cooperation as hybrid threats intensify
The combination of disinformation operations, border provocations and airspace violations creates a layered threat that requires sustained attention from Lithuania and its partners. Vilnius has increased cooperation with EU and US counterparts, urging stronger collective defences against hybrid interference.
The situation serves as an early test of NATO and EU readiness to respond to concurrent, multidomain challenges posed by Russia and Belarus. As hybrid activities evolve, regional security strategies must adapt to ensure resilience and maintain cohesion across the Alliance.
