Baltic region shifts from bridge to zone of strategic pressure
German defence minister Boris Pistorius warned on 18 November that the Baltic Sea has become a central arena of confrontation with Russia, urging European allies to rapidly strengthen the continent’s defence posture. Speaking at the Berlin Security Conference, he stressed that Moscow is intensifying hybrid attacks against EU and NATO members through cyberoperations, espionage, sabotage and disinformation. Pistorius said the Baltic, long seen as a connector among European nations, is now increasingly turning into what he called “Putin’s testing ground” for probing the Alliance’s deterrence and response capabilities — a point underscored in n-tv’s reporting on his remarks.
He pointed to damaged underwater cables, repeated airspace incursions, GPS jamming and persistent drone activity as clear signs of an evolving strategy. “We can no longer speak of coincidences. This is a strategy. These are warning signals,” Pistorius said. In parallel, Ukrinform highlighted warnings from NATO commanders that Russia is increasingly provoking the Alliance below the Article 5 threshold, hoping to trigger a rushed reaction that Moscow could exploit.
General Ingo Gerhartz, commander of NATO’s Joint Force Command Brunssum, noted that the Kremlin relies on hybrid tactics precisely because NATO states understand conventional defence well, while responses to “grey-zone” activity remain more complex. He said Russia aims to create fractures within the Alliance by maintaining constant pressure just below the level of open conflict. To counter this, he argued, NATO must overhaul its deterrence model, prioritising strong preventive measures over reactive defence.
NATO readiness, industrial reform and accelerating deterrence
Responding to frequent airspace violations in the Baltic region, Gerhartz said NATO’s reactions have been “precise, calm and measured,” yet Russia can easily pivot to different hybrid tools. He warned that collective defence must be considered a “Plan B,” with “reliable deterrence” serving as the Alliance’s primary strategy. As European Pravda noted, Germany now faces growing expectations to assume a genuine leadership role within NATO, strengthen defence procurement and accelerate reforms across its security institutions.
Gerhartz criticised slow political decision-making, bureaucratic delays and insufficient industrial capacity across Europe, arguing that these weaknesses erode trust within the Alliance. He praised the rapid integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO systems, emphasising their contribution to regional readiness. At the same time, he insisted that the Alliance “does not have until 2029, 2035 or 2040” to acquire key capabilities. Instead, NATO must purchase existing weapons systems “off the shelf” wherever possible — explicitly referencing Tomahawk missiles — while ensuring that Europe’s defence industry can dramatically increase output.
He added that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated how quickly technology evolves, rendering systems obsolete within weeks. Tanks, frigates and fighter jets will remain crucial, but NATO also needs capabilities with strong deterrent effects that operate ahead of any potential conflict. Gerhartz called for cultivating a “mentality of strength” across the Alliance, signalling readiness to defend what matters.
Analysts say Russia’s intensified hybrid activity — including sabotage, drones, disinformation campaigns and psychological operations — increasingly resembles a sustained form of warfare against Europe. According to assessments by the Institute for the Study of War, Moscow has escalated its so-called “Phase 0,” using information pressure and grey-zone actions to prepare the ground for potential confrontation with NATO. For Germany and its allies, the Baltic Sea is no longer a peripheral theatre but a central front in Europe’s evolving security landscape.
