Series of incursions highlights spillover risks from Ukraine war
Turkey has recorded three separate violations of its airspace by unmanned aerial vehicles within five days, underscoring how Russia’s war against Ukraine is increasingly affecting the security of neighbouring states in the Black Sea region. On December 20, Euronews reported that Turkish authorities had detected and responded to multiple drone incidents, triggering renewed debate over regional air defence and escalation risks linked to the conflict, as detailed in coverage of the incidents.
The incidents have intensified scrutiny of Turkey’s ability to monitor and protect its airspace at a time when military activity related to the war in Ukraine is increasingly crossing borders, deliberately or otherwise.
Opposition questions radar capabilities near key cities
The drone incursions prompted sharp political debate inside Turkey. Namik Tan, a member of parliament from the opposition Republican People’s Party and a former diplomat, publicly questioned the effectiveness of Turkey’s radar systems. He warned that at least one drone managed to approach Ankara and strategic military facilities before being intercepted, raising concerns about detection gaps over densely populated and strategically sensitive areas.
Such statements added pressure on the government to clarify how unmanned threats are identified and neutralised, particularly as drones become smaller, cheaper and harder to track with conventional systems.
Defence ministry defends multilayered air defence
Turkey’s Ministry of National Defence rejected the criticism, stating that control of the country’s airspace is maintained continuously. According to the ministry, radar early-warning assets, electronic warfare tools and interception systems operate within a multilayered structure designed to detect and counter a wide range of aerial threats.
Officials acknowledged, however, that the small size and low visibility of some drones significantly complicate detection, often requiring cross-verification through several sensor systems before action can be taken. This technical challenge has become common across modern air defence environments.
Russian reconnaissance drone identified near Istanbul
Details released by Turkish authorities point to a worrying pattern. On December 15, Turkish F-16 fighter jets intercepted and destroyed a drone after it entered Turkish airspace from the Black Sea, with the wreckage falling near the city of Çankırı, around 120 kilometres from Ankara.
A second drone was discovered on December 19 near Kocaeli, just 30 kilometres south of Istanbul. Turkey’s Interior Ministry later identified it as a Russian Orlan-10, a reconnaissance UAV designed for surveillance and fire correction, suggesting a level of intelligence-gathering activity rather than an accidental incursion.
Third drone deepens uncertainty over intent
A third drone was found on December 20 in a field near Balıkesir, roughly three hours southwest of Istanbul, and was transported to Ankara for technical analysis. Its origin has not yet been established, adding to uncertainty over whether these incidents form part of a broader pattern or involve multiple actors operating in the region.
The appearance of unmanned systems deep inside Turkish territory has raised questions about the scale and scope of military activity linked to the war in Ukraine and the protection of Turkey’s critical infrastructure.
Broader Black Sea security implications
The drone incidents follow other developments that have heightened Ankara’s concerns, including a Russian missile strike on the Turkish-operated civilian vessel Cenk T in the port of Odesa on December 12. The ship, flying the Panamanian flag and operated by a Turkish company, was engaged in civilian passenger and cargo transport and had no military role.
Taken together, airspace violations and attacks on civilian assets point to a changing security reality across the Black Sea. Countries such as Turkey, Georgia, Bulgaria and Romania increasingly find themselves exposed to indirect but tangible military risks. The incidents reinforce the view that Russia’s war against Ukraine has evolved into a factor of systemic regional destabilisation, posing direct challenges to NATO’s southern flank.
