Lithuania has recorded a sharp rise in illegal border crossings from Belarus, marking the highest number in six months. Authorities registered 275 attempts in October, with nearly half occurring in the final five days after Vilnius closed border crossings following drone incursions carrying smuggled cigarettes. Since the start of 2025, Lithuania has stopped over 41,000 illegal entrants, 20% more than last year. Vilnius believes the migrant flow is orchestrated by Belarusian security services as part of a hybrid operation against the EU.
Drones, contraband, and hybrid warfare
The surge follows incidents involving weather balloons used to deliver smuggled cigarettes from Belarus, which disrupted Lithuanian airports. President Gitanas Nausėda described the actions as a hybrid attack requiring “both symmetrical and asymmetrical” responses. In contrast, Alexander Lukashenko claimed Lithuanians themselves launched the contraband balloons to “profit from resale,” blaming their own authorities for cutting trade ties and building border fences.
Border closures and EU reaction
In response to drone-related threats, the Lithuanian government closed the Medininkai and Šalčininkai checkpoints for a month. The EU views Minsk’s actions as part of a broader hybrid campaign and is considering additional sanctions on Belarus. Analysts warn that prolonged closure could hurt Minsk’s economy by reducing transit flows and increasing logistics costs, potentially deepening its financial dependence on Moscow.
Political and security implications
While Lithuanian officials avoid labeling the situation as a new crisis, they acknowledge escalating tension. The coordinated use of migrants, drones, and disinformation reflects the hybrid strategy of both Minsk and Moscow to pressure the EU. The goal, observers say, is to divide European states, weaken support for Ukraine, and redirect Western attention away from Russia’s ongoing war.
